Comparing COVID-19 fatality across countries: a synthetic demographic indicator.

Background: The case fatality rate (CFR) is one of the most important measures for monitoring disease progression and evaluating appropriate policy health measures over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. To remove biases arising from the age structure of COVID-19 cases in international comparisons of the CFR, existing studies have relied mainly on direct standardisation. Objective: We propose and validate a synthetic indicator of COVID-19 fatality (SCFR) that improves its comparability across countries by adjusting for the age and sex structure of COVID-19 cases without relying on the arbitrary choice of a standard population. Results: Contrary to what comparisons of the crude CFR suggest, differences in COVID-19 fatality across countries according to the proposed SCFR are not very stark. Importantly, once we adjust for the age structure of COVID-19 cases, the higher case fatality among men emerges as the main driver of international differences in COVID-19 CFR. Conclusions: The SCFR is a simple indicator that is useful for monitoring the fatality of SARS-CoV-2 mutations and the efficacy of health policy measures for COVID-19, including vaccination. Contributions: (1) A simple synthetic indicator of COVID-19 fatality that improves its comparability across countries by adjusting for the age and sex structure of COVID-19 cases; (2) Evidence that sex differences in COVID-19 fatality drive international differences in the overall CFR.

Demographics of COVID-19 hospitalisations and related fatality risk patterns.

The assessment of hospitalisations and intensive care is crucial for planning health care resources needed over the course of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Nonetheless, comparative empirical assessments of COVID-19 hospitalisations and related fatality risk patterns on a large scale are lacking. This paper exploits anonymised, individual-level data on SARS-CoV-2 confirmed infections collected and harmonized by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to profile the demographics of COVID-19 hospitalised patients across nine European countries during the first pandemic wave (February - June 2020). We estimate the role of demographic factors for the risk of in-hospital mortality, and present a case study exploring individuals' comorbidities based on a subset of COVID-19 hospitalised patients available from the Dutch health system. We find that hospitalisation rates are highest among individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who are not only older than 70 years, but also 50-69 years. The latter group has a longer median time between COVID-19 symptoms' onset and hospitalisation than those aged 70+ years. Men have higher hospitalisation rates than women at all ages, and particularly above age 50. Consistently, men aged 50-59 years have a probability of hospitalisation almost double than women do. Although the gender imbalance in hospitalisation remains above age 70, the gap between men and women narrows at older ages. Comorbidities play a key role in explaining selection effects of COVID-19 confirmed positive cases requiring hospitalisation. Our study contributes to the evaluation of the COVID-19 burden on the demand of health-care during emergency phases. Assessing intensity and timing dimensions of hospital admissions, our findings allow for a better understanding of COVID-19 severe outcomes. Results point to the need of suitable calibrations of epidemiological projections and (re)planning of health services, enhancing preparedness to deal with infectious disease outbreaks.

Interventions to promote physical distancing behaviour during infectious disease pandemics or epidemics: A systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Physical distancing, defined as keeping 1-2m apart when co-located, can prevent cases of droplet or aerosol transmitted infectious diseases such as SARS-CoV2. During the COVID-19 pandemic, distancing was a recommendation or a requirement in many countries. This systematic review aimed to determine which interventions and behavior change techniques (BCTs) are effective in promoting adherence to distancing and through which potential mechanisms of action (MOAs). METHODS: Six databases were searched. The review included studies that were (a) conducted on humans, (b) reported physical distancing interventions, (c) included any comparator (e.g., pre-intervention versus post-intervention; randomized controlled trial), and (d) reported actual distancing or predictors of distancing behavior. Risk of bias was assessed using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool. BCTs and potential MoAs were identified in each intervention. RESULTS: Six articles (with seven studies and 19 comparisons) indicated that distancing interventions could successfully change MoAs and behavior. Successful BCTs (MoAs) included feedback on behavior (e.g., motivation); information about health consequences, salience of health consequences (e.g., beliefs about consequences), demonstration (e.g., beliefs about capabilities), and restructuring the physical environment (e.g., environmental context and resources). The most promising interventions were proximity buzzers, directional systems, and posters with loss-framed messages that demonstrated the behaviors. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence indicates several BCTs and potential MoAs that should be targeted in interventions and highlights gaps that should be the focus of future research.

Developing public transport messaging to provide crowding information during COVID-19: Application of the COM-B model and behaviour change wheel.

The COVID-19 outbreak meant that using public transport was potentially unsafe for risk of catching and transmitting the virus. UK anxiety is high with lockdowns preventing a normal way of life for over a year. A lack of ability to travel freely causes numerous declines in quality of life including social isolation and poor physical and mental health. People need crowding information to choose safer travel options and subdue coronavirus. To provide effective guidance, it is essential to empirically formulate messaging to create clarity and trust which can be acted upon in confidence. Behaviour Change Techniques incorporating the Behaviour Change Wheel and COM-B model have been utilised in vast areas of public health intervention development and messaging. There is consensus that public transport information needs to be clearer and more accessible but BCTs have not been utilised in the development of public transport advice. This paper outlines the development of crowding messaging for public transport on a platform available to UK travellers. Barriers and facilitators were explored; related behaviours, intervention functions and behaviour change techniques were mapped. Specific message phrasing was developed utilising the mapped functions and advice from the literature. With the COVID-19 outbreak, having accessible and effective messaging for safely using public transport is a continuation of the work recently conducted examining the best ways to present public health information. It is important to be transparent when developing messaging and interventions accessible to the public and this work forms a basis for continued exploration and development in this area.

What influences people's responses to public health messages for managing risks and preventing infectious diseases? A rapid systematic review of the evidence and recommendations.

BACKGROUND: Individual behaviour changes, such as hand hygiene and physical distancing, are required on a population scale to reduce transmission of infectious diseases such as COVID-19. However, little is known about effective methods of communicating risk reducing information, and how populations might respond. OBJECTIVE: To synthesise evidence relating to what (1) characterises effective public health messages for managing risk and preventing infectious disease and (2) influences people's responses to messages. DESIGN: A rapid systematic review was conducted. Protocol is published on Prospero CRD42020188704. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases were searched: Ovid Medline, Ovid PsycINFO and Healthevidence.org, and grey literature (PsyarXiv, OSF Preprints) up to May 2020. STUDY SELECTION: All study designs that (1) evaluated public health messaging interventions targeted at adults and (2) concerned a communicable disease spread via primary route of transmission of respiratory and/or touch were included. Outcomes included preventative behaviours, perceptions/awareness and intentions. Non-English language papers were excluded. SYNTHESIS: Due to high heterogeneity studies were synthesised narratively focusing on determinants of intentions in the absence of measured adherence/preventative behaviours. Themes were developed independently by two researchers and discussed within team to reach consensus. Recommendations were translated from narrative synthesis to provide evidence-based methods in providing effective messaging. RESULTS: Sixty-eight eligible papers were identified. Characteristics of effective messaging include delivery by credible sources, community engagement, increasing awareness/knowledge, mapping to stage of epidemic/pandemic. To influence intent effectively, public health messages need to be acceptable, increase understanding/perceptions of health threat and perceived susceptibility. DISCUSSION: There are four key recommendations: (1) engage communities in development of messaging, (2) address uncertainty immediately and with transparency, (3) focus on unifying messages from sources and (4) frame messages aimed at increasing understanding, social responsibility and personal control. Embedding principles of behavioural science into public health messaging is an important step towards more effective health-risk communication during epidemics/pandemics.

Demographic and territorial characteristics of COVID-19 cases and excess mortality in the European Union during the first wave.

This article explores for a large number of countries in the European Union (plus the United Kingdom) the main demographic differentials in positive tested COVID-19 cases and excess mortality during the first wave in 2020, accounting for differences at territorial level, where population density and size play a main role in the diffusion and effects of the disease in terms of morbidity and mortality. This knowledge complements and refines the epidemiological information about the spread and impact of the virus. For this analysis, we rely on the descriptive exploration of (1) data from The European Surveillance System (TESSy) database developed at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) on the number of cases and fatality rates and (2) of weekly mortality data collected by Eurostat. The analysis at territorial level studies the changes in R0-the basic reproduction number-and median excess mortality, across territories with different levels of urbanization. The unique findings of this study encompassing most European Union Member States confirm and define the demographic and territorial differential impacts in terms of infections and fatalities during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020. The information is important for stakeholders at European Union, national and sub-national levels in charge of designing containment measures for COVID-19 and adaptation policies for the future by anticipating the rebound for certain segments of the population with differential medical and economic needs.

A Rapid Systematic Review of Public Responses to Health Messages Encouraging Vaccination against Infectious Diseases in a Pandemic or Epidemic.

Public health teams need to understand how the public responds to vaccination messages in a pandemic or epidemic to inform successful campaigns encouraging the uptake of new vaccines as they become available. A rapid systematic review was performed by searching PsycINFO, MEDLINE, healthevidence.org, OSF Preprints and PsyArXiv Preprints in May 2020 for studies including at least one health message promoting vaccine uptake of airborne-, droplet- and fomite-spread viruses. Included studies were assessed for quality using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT) or the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR), and for patient and public involvement (PPI) in the research. Thirty-five articles were included. Most reported messages for seasonal influenza (n = 11; 31%) or H1N1 (n = 11; 31%). Evidence from moderate to high quality studies for improving vaccine uptake included providing information about virus risks and vaccination safety, as well as addressing vaccine misunderstandings, offering vaccination reminders, including vaccination clinic details, and delivering mixed media campaigns across hospitals or communities. Behavioural influences (beliefs and intentions) were improved when: shorter, risk-reducing or relative risk framing messages were used; the benefits of vaccination to society were emphasised; and beliefs about capability and concerns among target populations (e.g., vaccine safety) were addressed. Clear, credible, messages in a language target groups can understand were associated with higher acceptability. Two studies (6%) described PPI in the research process. Future campaigns should consider the beliefs and information needs of target populations in their design, including ensuring that vaccine eligibility and availability is clear, and messages are accessible. More high quality research is needed to demonstrate the effects of messaging interventions on actual vaccine uptake.